Ο Γιώργος Παπανδρέου προεξοφλεί τη χρεοκοπία μας;

Ένα πραγματικά «παράξενο» δημοσίευμα των “THE NEW YORK TIMES” δίνει μια διαφορετική διάσταση σε όλα όσα συμβαίνουν το τελευταίο καιρό σχετικά με το μέλλον της ελληνικής οικονομίας.

Το δημοσίευμα αναφέρει πως ..........

από την αρχή του έτους, έχουν γίνει μια σειρά από μυστικές συναντήσεις του Έλληνα Πρωθυπουργού με κάποιους ώστε να καταρτηστεί σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσης του ελληνικού χρέους, χωρίς ωστόσο να επιτευχθεί κάποιο «κούρεμα».

Σύμφωνα με το δημοσίευμα, δύο είναι τα άτομα που επεξεργάστηκαν το όλο σχέδιο και το παρουσίασαν στον κο Παπανδρέου. Ο πρώτος είναι ο Άγγλος, Stuart Holland, ειδικός στα ευρωπαϊκά οικονομικά θέματα, πρώην υψηλόβαθµο στέλεχος του βρετανικού Εργατικού Κόµµατος, όπως επίσης επί µακρόν σύµβουλος του Ανδρέα Παπανδρέου. Ο δεύτερος είναι Έλληνας και ονομάζεται Ιωάννης Βαρουφάκης. Είναι οικονομολόγος και …blogger στο Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών. Παράλληλα ο κος Βαρουφάκης ήταν λογογράφος του κου Παπανδρέου από το 2004 έως το 2006.

Βλέποντας το σχέδιο των δύο ο Έλληνας Πρωθυπουργός παραδέχτηκε πως το σχέδιο λιτότητας που μας έχει επιβάλλει θα αποτύχει (!) όπότε και άναψε το πράσινο φως στους δύο να το προωθήσουν στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση.

Στο όλο σενάριο, αντέδρασε ο Υπουργός Οικονομικών κος Παπακωνσταντίνου, λόγω που θεωρεί απίθανο το συγκεκριμένο σχέδιο να εγκριθεί από τη Γερμανία και την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα.

Ερώτηση.

Είναι δυνατόν ο ίδιος ο Πρωθυπουργός να παραδέχεται πως το σχέδιο λιτότητας που ο ίδιος έχει ψηφίσει είναι μαθηματικά βέβαιο πως θα αποτύχει;

Δηλαδή προεξοφλεί τη χρεοκοπία μας;

Λογικά, δεν θα πρέπει κάποιος από τη κυβέρνηση να απαντήσει στο δημοσίευμα των THE NEW YORK TIMES;

Διαβάστε ολόκληρο το άρθρο όπως δημοσιεύθηκε στην ηλεκτρονική έκδοση της “THE NEW YORK TIMES” με τίτλο "Too radical a debt plan from Greece" και φέρει την υπογραφή του κου Landon Thomas.

LONDON — In March, just as it was becoming clear that Greece might have to ask Europe for more money to prop up its failing economy, Prime Minister George A. Papandreou seriously considered a radical plan intended to resolve his country’s debt crisis once and for all.

Under the proposal, Greece would transfer as much as 133 billion euros — or 40 percent of its government debt, equal to about $195 billion — to the European Central Bank, which would then pay off the obligation by issuing its own euro bond.

It would be a “restructuring without a haircut,” in the view of the plan’s proponents, who enthusiastically described it to Mr. Papandreou in a series of secret meetings this year. The result, ideally, would be to ease the weight of the Greek debt on the economy, clearing the way for renewed growth while keeping the bankers and credit-rating agencies on board.

In many ways, the plan was a dreamy alternative to the grim calculus of Europe’s demands for more austerity from Greece in return for more loans. And Mr. Papandreou went so far as to ask a political ally and the plan’s two proponents, a British and a Greek economist, to lobby Europeans in its favor.

But according to economists who participated in the discussions, Greece’s finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, was opposed, arguing that Germany, to say nothing of the central bank, would never accept it. And while a number of economists contend that Europe will have to develop a plan to restructure Greece’s debt, the Greek government has shelved the notion for now as it moves toward another bailout to keep the country out of bankruptcy.

“It was a nice idea, but not defensible in current circumstances,” said Daniel Gros, the head of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels, who took part in one of the meetings with the prime minister to discuss the plan’s merits. “If there is one person who cannot propose something like this, it is the Greek prime minister. It would have to be a German.”

This week, Mr. Papandreou is struggling to persuade his increasingly disruptive party members that Greece must agree to another round of austerity measures to qualify for a second portion of loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Those measures include closing down public-sector enterprises, selling more assets and increasing tax revenue. The new package will be submitted to Greece’s Parliament on Thursday and a vote is expected before the end of the month.

Signs are growing, however, that the patience of the long-suffering Greek public is wearing thin. Mr. Papandreou’s approval ratings are below 30 percent and, as uncertainty builds, Greeks continue to take money out of the banking system.

Mr. Papandreou’s interest in a plan to transfer much of the country’s debt to the rest of Europe may well have been a passing fancy. And Mr. Papandreou’s chance of persuading Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of Europe’s central bank, to take on even more debt on top of the nearly 200 billion euros ($292 billion) it already is exposed to, was always going to be a long shot.

“The prime minister is in favor of the proposal,” said Vasso Papandreou, a former top financial adviser to the prime minister and an influential member of Parliament within the governing Socialist party, known as Pasok, who has been openly critical of the government’s austerity plan. “This is not a Greek problem any more — it’s a European problem.” (Ms. Papandreou is not related to the prime minister.)

A spokesman for the prime minister said that Mr. Papandreou and other European officials had long supported a euro bond as one policy option but that his current priority was to make the Greek economy competitive again.

“In search of the best solutions to effectively and permanently exit the crisis, the prime minister will continue to exchange views with his counterparts around the world as well as leading economists and academics,” he said.

The two architects of the idea have longstanding ties to Mr. Papandreou. They have characterized their sweeping plan, with a bit of cheek, as a modest proposal.

One of the architects, Yanis Varoufakis, a political economist and blogger at the University of Athens, was a speechwriter and adviser to Mr. Papandreou from 2004 to 2006. The other, Stuart Holland, is a Europe expert and former high-ranking official in Britain’s Labour Party who was a longtime adviser to Andreas Papandreou, Mr. Papandreou’s father, who was also Greece’s prime minister.

“When you are insolvent, you do not solve things with new loans,” said Mr. Varoufakis, who this week wrote an open letter to Mr. Papandreou urging him to reject the onerous terms of the second bailout. “I want George to look into the camera and tell the German taxpayer: ‘I cannot in good conscience take any more of your money because if I do so, this money will just go to the bankers who will only hoard it.’ “

The plan’s root premise — that Greece is incapable of generating sufficient money to pay down its debt — is by no means outlandish, and it has been echoed by economists and rating agencies alike. In pushing Mr. Papandreou to present Europe with this basic reality, the plan updates one of the more popular sayings of the economist John Maynard Keynes: If I owe you a pound (or a euro, in Greece’s case) I have a problem; but if I owe you a million, the problem is yours.

Adhering to that logic, the problem of Greece’s debt is as much the central bank’s — now the largest institutional owner of Greek sovereign debt — as it is Greece’s.

This reality was underscored this week when the Bank for International Settlements released data showing that European banking exposure to Greece, while high at 121 billion euros ($177 billion), has been declining as French and German banks have been reducing their exposure. That means, in many cases, that the central bank has been left holding the bag, which helps explain why it is so opposed to any talk of restructuring Greece’s debt, or requiring bondholders to share in any losses, known as a haircut.

Mr. Varoufakis says that there are other important components to his and Mr. Holland’s proposal, like getting Europe’s main rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to recapitalize European banks and promoting a New Deal-style investment program for Greece.

But the transfer of Greek debt onto the central bank’s books is crucial because the bank, with the full resources of the European monetary system as backing, can borrow at much lower rates than Greece can. The plan calls for the debt to be sold as a 10-year bond at 3 percent interest, with Greece paying back the central bank at that same 3 percent over 10 years — in theory, at no cost to the bank.

As someone who has worked closely with the prime minister in the past and keeps in contact with his immediate family, Mr. Varoufakis is convinced that Mr. Papandreou will embrace his plan as the only alternative to endless pain and suffering of the Greek people.

Mr. Papandreou recognizes that the latest austerity proposal is “not going to work,” Mr. Varoufakis insisted. He “is like an atheist now, crossing himself and hoping for a miracle.”

THE NEW YORK TIMES

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